Forecasts
What happens next, by when, and how sure we are
Probability is how likely an outcome is by its deadline. Confidence, shown as bars, is how strong the evidence behind that number is. Estimates move only when verified evidence does, and every question is scored when it resolves.
- Open questions
- Due in 12 months
- Expected to happen
- Confidence
- Resolved
Board
Every question
Revisions
How expectations changed
Every change is a move from one probability to another, with the reason and the evidence. Nothing is overwritten.
Track record
Are the probabilities any good?
If Laurenceo says 70%, it should be right about 70% of the time, and sharper than a coin flip.
Scores
Reliability
Where the open questions sit
A board with everything near 50% would say little; one with nothing between 5% and 30% would be overconfident.
Method
How the board works
- Probability
- How likely the outcome is by its deadline, from 0.5% to 99.5%. In words: Very unlikely (10% or less), Unlikely (11 to 35%), Toss-up (36 to 65%), Likely (66 to 90%), Very likely (over 90%).
- Confidence
- How much to trust the probability, computed only from the evidence, never from the probability. Points for sourced facts (1 for one, 2 for two or three, 3 for four or more), 2 or more independent publishers (+1), a sourced fact from the last 180 days (+1), a measured trend with enough points (+1), that trend agreeing within 20 points (+1, or -1 when more than 35 apart), a deadline within a year (+1, or -1 beyond two years), more speculation than fact (-1). High at 6 or more, Medium at 4 or 5, Low at 3 or less. A probability of 10% or less, or over 90%, on Low confidence is flagged.
- Movement
- A change of 2 percentage points or more is an update and needs a verified fact and a written reason. Smaller changes are ignored. One day's move is capped.
- Evidence
- A fact is stated in a source the pipeline retrieved and checked, and links to it. Inference is Laurenceo reasoning from facts; speculation is flagged. Every question shows evidence against as well as for.
- Trend test
- Where a question depends on a measured series, four growth shapes are fitted and weighted by support. The fitted probability is a reference, not the forecast.
- Resolution and scoring
- An event resolves YES on a verified source, and NO after its deadline plus 14 days. Resolved questions are scored with Brier and log scores. A daily ledger of every probability is stored and cannot be overwritten.