Forecasts
What happens next, by when, and how sure we are
Probability is how likely an outcome is by its deadline. Confidence, shown as bars, is how strong the evidence behind that number is. Estimates move only when verified evidence does, and every question is scored when it resolves.
- Open questions
- Due in 12 months
- Expected to happen
- Confidence
- Resolved
ForecastsFrontier models
Will Alibaba publicly release Qwen 4 by 2026-11-30?
Laurenceo estimate: 62% (Toss-up) by November 30, 2026. Last updated November 2, 2026.
How it resolves
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-11-30, Alibaba makes at least one model officially named Qwen 4 (any tier, such as Max, Plus, Flash or 27B) available to the public, through Qwen Chat, Alibaba Cloud Model Studio or public weights. Resolves NO otherwise.
Reasoning
Alibaba previewed Qwen 4 in four tiers at Apsara on 22 September 2026, describing it as still in training. An attendee account from Apsara Amsterdam on 29 October suggested a launch within about a week, which Alibaba has not confirmed.
Evidence
- For. Alibaba previewed the Qwen 4 lineup at its Apsara Conference on 22 September 2026. Versely
- For. An attendee account said Qwen 4 could launch the week after Apsara Amsterdam on 29 October. CellCog
- Against. Alibaba's own announcement described Qwen 4 as still in training, with no release date. TechPilot
Revision log
- November 2, 2026: set at 62%. Initial Laurenceo estimate, set from the evidence listed here.
What to watch
- Qwen's official channels and Hugging Face organisation
- Arena listings of unreleased Qwen models
AGI Observatory
When AGI arrives, and who is leading
AGI here means AI that can do the work of an AI researcher, end to end. We do not guess the date ourselves: we combine the leading published forecasts with a measured trend, by a fixed rule, every morning.
Our estimate
What the estimate is built on
Each bar runs from today to the date a source expects. Our estimate is the middle of the counted sources.
How the estimate has moved
What changed, and when
The forecasts behind it
Counted sources set the estimate. The others are shown for context.
Test the estimate yourself
Switch sources on or off, including the ones the rule leaves out, and see where the middle lands. Same rule as ours: the median of the sources you choose, with the middle half as the likely range when four or more are chosen.
Your estimate
The published estimate is this raw median passed through fixed guardrails that limit how fast it can move in a day, so the two can differ for a while after a big change.
Who holds the frontier records
The best published result on four tests of frontier AI, and who set it.
| Test | Best result | Held by |
|---|
Companies and countries
Records each holds now, and records set in the last 12 months.
United States and China, best result on each test
| Test | United States | China |
|---|
Timeline
Milestones, records, releases and forecast changes, newest first.
Steps to watch
Dated questions on the forecast board that would show AGI getting closer, scored when they resolve.
How the observatory works
Board
Every question
Revisions
How expectations changed
Every change is a move from one probability to another, with the reason and the evidence. Nothing is overwritten.
Track record
Are the probabilities any good?
If Laurenceo says 70%, it should be right about 70% of the time, and sharper than a coin flip.
Scores
Reliability
Where the open questions sit
A board with everything near 50% would say little; one with nothing between 5% and 30% would be overconfident.
Method
How the board works
- Probability
- How likely the outcome is by its deadline, from 0.5% to 99.5%. In words: Very unlikely (10% or less), Unlikely (11 to 35%), Toss-up (36 to 65%), Likely (66 to 90%), Very likely (over 90%).
- Confidence
- How much to trust the probability, computed only from the evidence, never from the probability. Points for sourced facts (1 for one, 2 for two or three, 3 for four or more), 2 or more independent publishers (+1), a sourced fact from the last 180 days (+1), a measured trend with enough points (+1), that trend agreeing within 20 points (+1, or -1 when more than 35 apart), a deadline within a year (+1, or -1 beyond two years), more speculation than fact (-1). High at 6 or more, Medium at 4 or 5, Low at 3 or less. A probability of 10% or less, or over 90%, on Low confidence is flagged.
- Movement
- A change of 2 percentage points or more is an update and needs a verified fact and a written reason. Smaller changes are ignored. One day's move is capped.
- Evidence
- A fact is stated in a source the pipeline retrieved and checked, and links to it. Inference is Laurenceo reasoning from facts; speculation is flagged. Every question shows evidence against as well as for.
- Trend test
- Where a question depends on a measured series, four growth shapes are fitted and weighted by support. The fitted probability is a reference, not the forecast.
- Resolution and scoring
- An event resolves YES on a verified source, and NO after its deadline plus 14 days. Resolved questions are scored with Brier and log scores. A daily ledger of every probability is stored and cannot be overwritten.