Forecasts
Dated forecasts on AI, risk and markets
Each question carries a deadline, a probability and a confidence rating that reflects the strength of the evidence behind it. Probabilities change only on verified evidence, and every question is scored when it resolves.
- Open questions
- Due in 12 months
- Expected to happen
- Resolved
- Confidence
ForecastsGeopolitics
Will the US Commerce Department publicly announce a formal enforcement action (Entity List addition, penalty or settlement) against a company for diverting Nvidia AI chips to China by 2027-03-31?
Laurenceo estimate: 45% (Toss-up) by March 31, 2027. Last updated November 12, 2026.
How it resolves
Resolves yes if a BIS or Commerce press release, Federal Register notice or court filing announces such an action naming a company and citing diversion of Nvidia AI chips to China. Decided by the official Commerce or Federal Register record.
Reasoning
Set at 45% because Trump has authorised a crackdown three times and lawmakers are pressing, but the Commerce Secretary has reportedly stalled implementation.
Evidence
- For. Trump authorised a crackdown on suspected Nvidia chip diversion for the third time this year, backed by Rubio, Bessent, Greer and Hegseth. Axios (2026-11-11)
- For. Senators Warren and Banks urged Commerce to close export control loopholes. Al Jazeera (2026-11-10)
- Against. Lutnick has resisted restricting companies suspected of diverting chips and warned of a trade war with China. Axios (2026-11-11)
Revision log
- November 12, 2026: set at 45%. Set at 45% because Trump has authorised a crackdown three times and lawmakers are pressing, but the Commerce Secretary has reportedly stalled implementation.
Every question
AGI Observatory
When AGI arrives
AGI here means AI that can do the work of an AI researcher, end to end. Our reading is rebuilt every morning from the leading forecasts and a measured trend, and it moves the day a forecaster we count publishes a new date.
Our estimate
Laurenceo's read
The forecasts behind it
Who holds the frontier records
The best published result on four tests of frontier AI, and who set it.
| Test | Best result | Held by |
|---|
Records each company holds now, and records set in the last 12 months.
United States and China, best result on each test
| Test | United States | China |
|---|
Timeline
How the observatory works
Revisions
How expectations changed
Every change is a move from one probability to another, with the reason and the evidence. Nothing is overwritten.
Track record
Are the probabilities any good?
If Laurenceo says 70%, it should be right about 70% of the time, and sharper than a coin flip.
Scores
Reliability
Where the open questions sit
A board with everything near 50% would say little; one with nothing between 5% and 30% would be overconfident.
Method
How the board works
- Probability
- How likely the outcome is by its deadline, from 0.5% to 99.5%. In words: Very unlikely (10% or less), Unlikely (11 to 35%), Toss-up (36 to 65%), Likely (66 to 90%), Very likely (over 90%).
- Confidence
- How much to trust the probability, computed only from the evidence, never from the probability. Points for sourced facts (1 for one, 2 for two or three, 3 for four or more), 2 or more independent publishers (+1), a sourced fact from the last 180 days (+1), a measured trend with enough points (+1), that trend agreeing within 20 points (+1, or -1 when more than 35 apart), a deadline within a year (+1, or -1 beyond two years), more speculation than fact (-1). High at 6 or more, Medium at 4 or 5, Low at 3 or less. A probability of 10% or less, or over 90%, on Low confidence is flagged.
- Movement
- A change of 2 percentage points or more is an update and needs a verified fact and a written reason. Smaller changes are ignored. One day's move is capped.
- Evidence
- A fact is stated in a source the pipeline retrieved and checked, and links to it. Inference is Laurenceo reasoning from facts; speculation is flagged. Every question shows evidence against as well as for.
- Trend test
- Where a question depends on a measured series, four growth shapes are fitted and weighted by support. The fitted probability is a reference, not the forecast.
- Resolution and scoring
- An event resolves YES on a verified source, and NO after its deadline plus 14 days. Resolved questions are scored with Brier and log scores on a recency-weighted probability: every estimate the question held counts, the latest most, each earlier one at half the weight of the one after it. A daily ledger of every probability is stored and cannot be overwritten.