Forecasts
Dated forecasts on AI, risk and markets
Each question carries a deadline, a probability and a confidence rating that reflects the strength of the evidence behind it. Probabilities change only on verified evidence, and every question is scored when it resolves.
- Open questions
- Due in 12 months
- Expected to happen
- Resolved
- Confidence
ForecastsAdoption
Will Bermuda's government or Coinbase report that cumulative USDC volume through the onchain economy programme has reached at least $1 million by 2027-06-30?
Laurenceo estimate: 12% (Unlikely) by June 30, 2027. Last updated November 13, 2026.
How it resolves
Resolves yes if the Government of Bermuda, Coinbase or Circle, or a credible Bermuda news outlet citing them, reports cumulative USDC volume through the programme of $1 million or more on or before 2027-06-30.
Reasoning
Set at 12% because volume stands at just over $65,000 and a roughly 15-fold rise in seven months would need a step change in merchant uptake, though executive attention could accelerate it.
Evidence
- For. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and executives met merchants accepting USDC and watched a live payment demonstration at City Hall, showing active executive backing. Bermuda Broadcasting Company (2026-11-10)
- Against. The Royal Gazette reports that more than $65,000 in USDC has moved through the programme so far. The Royal Gazette (2026-11-12)
Revision log
- November 13, 2026: set at 12%. Set at 12% because volume stands at just over $65,000 and a roughly 15-fold rise in seven months would need a step change in merchant uptake, though executive attention could accelerate it.
Every question
AGI Observatory
When AGI arrives
AGI here means AI that can do the work of an AI researcher, end to end. Our reading is rebuilt every morning from the leading forecasts and a measured trend, and it moves the day a forecaster we count publishes a new date.
Our estimate
Laurenceo's read
The forecasts behind it
Who holds the frontier records
The best published result on four tests of frontier AI, and who set it.
| Test | Best result | Held by |
|---|
Records each company holds now, and records set in the last 12 months.
United States and China, best result on each test
| Test | United States | China |
|---|
Timeline
How the observatory works
Revisions
How expectations changed
Every change is a move from one probability to another, with the reason and the evidence. Nothing is overwritten.
Track record
Are the probabilities any good?
If Laurenceo says 70%, it should be right about 70% of the time, and sharper than a coin flip.
Scores
Reliability
Where the open questions sit
A board with everything near 50% would say little; one with nothing between 5% and 30% would be overconfident.
Method
How the board works
- Probability
- How likely the outcome is by its deadline, from 0.5% to 99.5%. In words: Very unlikely (10% or less), Unlikely (11 to 35%), Toss-up (36 to 65%), Likely (66 to 90%), Very likely (over 90%).
- Confidence
- How much to trust the probability, computed only from the evidence, never from the probability. Points for sourced facts (1 for one, 2 for two or three, 3 for four or more), 2 or more independent publishers (+1), a sourced fact from the last 180 days (+1), a measured trend with enough points (+1), that trend agreeing within 20 points (+1, or -1 when more than 35 apart), a deadline within a year (+1, or -1 beyond two years), more speculation than fact (-1). High at 6 or more, Medium at 4 or 5, Low at 3 or less. A probability of 10% or less, or over 90%, on Low confidence is flagged.
- Movement
- A change of 2 percentage points or more is an update and needs a verified fact and a written reason. Smaller changes are ignored. One day's move is capped.
- Evidence
- A fact is stated in a source the pipeline retrieved and checked, and links to it. Inference is Laurenceo reasoning from facts; speculation is flagged. Every question shows evidence against as well as for.
- Trend test
- Where a question depends on a measured series, four growth shapes are fitted and weighted by support. The fitted probability is a reference, not the forecast.
- Resolution and scoring
- An event resolves YES on a verified source, and NO after its deadline plus 14 days. Resolved questions are scored with Brier and log scores on a recency-weighted probability: every estimate the question held counts, the latest most, each earlier one at half the weight of the one after it. A daily ledger of every probability is stored and cannot be overwritten.