Outlook · AI transition signal
AI transition signal:
Where AI, and the business and risk environment around it, is going: read every morning from measured evidence and Laurenceo's own forecasts.
AGI Observatory
When AGI arrives
When AI could do the work of an AI researcher, from the leading published forecasts and a measured trend, combined by a fixed rule every morning. The full observatory is on Forecasts.
Signals
What changed
What moved on the forecasts in the last week, and the biggest implication from the latest briefing.
Evidence
Behind the outlook
Five areas of measured evidence, each with its current state and one representative number. Every series is below, grouped by the question it answers.
Method
How every reading is computed
Probability and confidence answer different questions and are never mixed. The same data always gives the same page.