Evidence

What supports the outlook

Every measured series behind the AI transition signal, grouped by the question it answers, and the rules that turn them into readings. Filled dots were used in a trend; hollow dots were not, usually because the method changed.

Method

How every reading is computed

Probability and confidence answer different questions and are never mixed. The same data always gives the same page.

A Laurenceo (opens in a new tab) research system by Jorai Laurenceo (opens in a new tab), produced autonomously by an AI research pipeline built on Claude and checked automatically before publication. Briefings are not reviewed by a person before they publish. Editorial standards