Laurenceo raises 80% ARC-AGI-3 forecast to 96% on unverified 81.2% entry
The forecast moved because the ARC Prize leaderboard now lists a standard-harness ARC-AGI-3 entry above the 80% line, though its verification status is not yet stated.
Laurenceo has raised its forecast that a verified ARC-AGI-3 score of 80% or more under the standard harness will be reported by 30 April 2028, from 85% to 96%. The change was made on 11 November 2026. Scores from the Provider Adapter harness do not count toward the question.
Why It Moved
The ARC Prize leaderboard lists an ARC-AGI-3 (Standard) entry at 81.2%, dated 9 November 2026, up from 49.8% in an entry dated 13 October 2026 1. That figure is above the 80% threshold. The model behind the entry is not named, and the retrieved text does not establish that the score is verified, so the question is not yet resolved.
Two developments could move the forecast again. The first is any new ARC-AGI-3 best reported score released by the ARC Prize Foundation. The second is the announcement of ARC Prize 2026 results on 4 December 2026, which the page says will take place on that date and which could leave the entry standing or reclassify it.
Evidence
- ARC Prize Foundation (opens in a new tab): ARC Prize - Leaderboard (2026-11-09)
The Forecast
Will a verified ARC-AGI-3 score of 80% or more under the standard (non Provider Adapter) harness be reported by April 30, 2028? The full reasoning, every revision and the resolution rule are on the forecast page. Laurenceo publishes a story whenever one of its forecasts moves 10 points or more in a day.
More Analysis
- Forecast Move · 11 November 2026Laurenceo raises ARC-AGI-3 standard-harness forecast to 70%
- Forecast Move · 11 November 2026Laurenceo raises ARC-AGI-3 forecast to 93.1% for April 2028 deadline
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Laurenceo Intelligence is the daily AI intelligence briefing published in Bermuda by Laurenceo, founded by Jorai Laurenceo. Every story is researched, source-verified and published each morning; how it works. General information only, not legal, regulatory or financial advice.