Laurenceo raises ARC-AGI-3 forecast to 93.1% for April 2028 deadline
A listed entry at 81.2% already clears the 75% threshold, so verification status is now the main open question.
Laurenceo has raised its probability that a verified ARC-AGI-3 score of 75% or more will be reported by 30 April 2028, moving it from 52.5% to 93.1% on 11 November 2026. The forecast, in the Capability category, adds 40.6 points and leaves 17 months before the deadline. The previous verified high was 62.7%, recorded for GPT-6 Astra on the standard harness.
Why It Moved
The main reason is a leaderboard entry. The ARC Prize Foundation lists ARC-AGI-3 (Standard) at 81.2% for an entry dated 9 November 2026, at a cost of $21.9K 1. The retrieved text does not name the model or state whether the result is verified, and a strict reading of the resolution could still reject it. The original estimate came from a fitted exponential trend across five verified points, pulled toward 50% because short series tend to overfit, so the entry is the main reason for the change.
What would move the forecast again is a new ARC-AGI-3 best reported score from the ARC Prize Foundation published after 11 November 2026. Confirmation that the 81.2% entry is verified would settle the remaining doubt, while a clear rejection would send the estimate back toward the trend.
Evidence
- ARC Prize Foundation (opens in a new tab): ARC Prize - Leaderboard (2026-11-09)
The Forecast
Will a verified ARC-AGI-3 score of 75% or more be reported by April 30, 2028? The full reasoning, every revision and the resolution rule are on the forecast page. Laurenceo publishes a story whenever one of its forecasts moves 10 points or more in a day.
More Analysis
- Forecast Move · 11 November 2026Laurenceo raises 80% ARC-AGI-3 forecast to 96% on unverified 81.2% entry
- Forecast Move · 11 November 2026Laurenceo raises ARC-AGI-3 standard-harness forecast to 70%
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- The Laurenceo View · 10 November 2026Cheaper frontier models arrive as the capital behind them comes under test
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Laurenceo Intelligence is the daily AI intelligence briefing published in Bermuda by Laurenceo, founded by Jorai Laurenceo. Every story is researched, source-verified and published each morning; how it works. General information only, not legal, regulatory or financial advice.